Compute Sovereignty · v44.0

The Right to Run.
The Duty to Restrain.

Two legal obligations: a lower boundary, and an upper one. Local AI for the citizen; a binding treaty for the frontier.

If you don't run it, you cannot control it.
Dispatch · 13 July 2026

The table is set. Now comes the text.

On 6 and 7 July the UN Global Dialogue on AI Governance held its first session in Geneva: every member state in one room, opened by the Secretary-General and the President of the General Assembly. Guterres put four priorities on the record — common safety standards, human-rights red lines, capacity-building for developing countries, and environmental transparency. Autonomous weapons he called morally repugnant.

The sharper signal came from the scientists. The Dialogue's independent panel — forty experts co-chaired by Yoshua Bengio and Maria Ressa — delivered its first report days before the session: science “cannot guarantee” that frontier AI will avoid catastrophic harm. That is the official advisory language of the body every state asked for guidance, and it binds no one. The second session convenes in New York in May 2027: ten months in which the frontier ships at competitive tempo.

A treaty needs a table before it needs a text. The table now exists. The Horizon below counts what the frontier does while the text is being argued.

UN Global Dialogue on AI Governance, Geneva, 6–7 July 2026 · Independent International Scientific Panel on AI, first report, 1 July 2026 · Public reporting, July 2026.

Update · 25 July 2026

A new mark, and a door in front of it.

The p|d has served since the beginning: the p from Compute, the d from Freedom, two mirror letters that went looking for each other. From today it hands over to a mark that sits closer to the name: C‹|›F, built in Fraunces, with the divider running through it and the angles closing on the notch in the F.

Above, on the right, that mark stands in glass. Light travels through it and never quite settles — the same state the special edition ends on. Copper in the C and in the right angle, polar blue in the divider, the left angle and the F.

00 — Horizon

Where this is heading. And where we came from.

Eighty years on one line. Ahead of us: AI, AGI, AGIplus, ASI — dated by the people who forecast for a living. Behind us: the machines that raised us. The instrument moves with the calendar; come back tomorrow and it has crept forward on its own. Drag the line anywhere. Backwards is the friendly direction.

AI capabilities · vs. best human experts
The economics · projected
In the world
    Arriving
      Still fiction
        How to read this. The AGI band [Feb–Oct 2026] follows the camp that says general-purpose AI is already underfoot: Agüera y Arcas & Norvig called today's models general intelligence back in 2023, Tyler Cowen called o3 AGI in April 2025, and Ethan Mollick describes what we have as jagged AGI. Survey medians still put the crossing years later — the width of the band is that disagreement. The ASI dates come from the Metaculus community forecast, the AI Futures Project and the LEAP expert survey (all 2026). The past on this line is real hardware you could once buy. The future between the thresholds is scenario interpolation in the spirit of ai-2027.com, scaled so that today's column matches today's published figures. Error bars widen in both directions from today.
        01 — The Principle

        Two thresholds. One architecture.

        AI is too consequential to remain in the hands of a small number of unaccountable actors, neither at the point of access nor at the point of risk.

        Lower boundary · The citizen

        The Threshold Obligation

        Once AI crosses a defined capability threshold, developers should be legally required to offer a version runnable on personal hardware, without cloud dependency, without ongoing access fees, without surveillance. It secures the right of the citizen to a machine that answers to them.

        Upper boundary · The species

        The Treaty Obligation

        Once frontier development crosses into AGI, AGIplus, and ASI, no single corporation and no single state holds the democratic mandate to proceed alone. Decisions of consequence to the species require legitimation by the species, encoded in a binding international treaty, with verifiable limits, IAEA-grade inspections, and pause mechanisms anchored in law.

        Open source is not the same as compute sovereignty.

        Releasing model weights that only function at scale on hyperscaler infrastructure is a formal gesture without functional substance. The code may be visible; the capability remains inaccessible. Whoever controls the inference infrastructure controls the knowledge. If that knowledge becomes foundational to medicine, education, law, and governance, concentrating it in three to five private corporations is not a market outcome we should accept by default.

        The pattern is old. Only the scale is new.

        02 — The Mechanism

        Two obligations. One architecture.

        The Threshold Obligation secures the lower boundary: the right of the citizen to a machine they actually control. The Treaty Obligation secures the upper one: the right of the species to a voice in decisions taken in its name. Each obligation, alone, is symbolic. Together, they are an architecture.

        Lower boundaryThe Threshold Obligation

        The standard response to concerns about AI concentration is a language of openness: papers, benchmarks, model cards, APIs, and occasional weight releases. But this answer mistakes visibility for access, and access for sovereignty.

        Even where model weights are released, the most capable systems remain practically dependent on infrastructure costing hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. Researchers may inspect parts of the stack. Citizens may, in theory, audit it. But they cannot run frontier capability independently. The appearance of openness remains; the substance of control does not.

        Compute Freedom proposes a concrete mechanism: once an AI system crosses a defined capability threshold, its developer should be legally required to offer a compressed, locally-runnable version: on consumer hardware, offline-capable, without mandatory cloud authentication.

        The obligation is the principle. The threshold is the negotiation.

        The precise capability threshold is left open here by design. Defining it is a technical and political question that belongs in public deliberation, with input from engineers, ethicists, policymakers, and affected communities. We invite that negotiation to begin.

        • Frontier models can today be compressed to run on consumer hardware with modest capability loss. The technical barrier is not fundamental.
        • The economic incentive to prevent local deployment is structural: cloud inference is the revenue model.
        • No legal framework currently compels disclosure of whether compression is feasible.
        • The public has no mechanism to verify industry claims about what is and is not possible.

        The pharmaceutical parallel is instructive. Drug developers are required to disclose formulations, submit to regulatory review, and, after a period, open compounds to generics. We accept that the public has a legitimate interest in not having life-critical knowledge permanently locked inside private infrastructure. AI is becoming life-critical knowledge. The argument is the same.

        This argument leaves commercial AI development intact. What it adds is a structural floor beneath it: a minimum condition of compute sovereignty that keeps independent verification, academic research, and democratic accountability possible.

        Upper boundaryThe Treaty Obligation

        The lower threshold protects the citizen. The upper threshold protects the species, and we have been quiet about it for too long.

        As frontier systems advance toward general human-level capability and beyond — AGI, AGIplus, and ASI — their development becomes a matter of consequence beyond any single state or any single corporation. The current trajectory has neither democratic mandate nor binding treaty. Stargate, Colossus, the multi-hundred-billion-dollar build-outs of OpenAI, Google, and xAI, all dependent on the de facto NVIDIA monopoly on frontier training silicon, proceed at competitive tempo, accountable to shareholders rather than citizens.

        The physical signature of this race is no longer subtle. When an AI company announces it needs ten new nuclear reactors to train its next model, a constitutional state owes its citizens one question before any admiration: by whose authority? That this question has barely been asked is a failure of contemporary political thought.

        Public recordThe Failure of Self-Regulation

        Anthropic refused to remove safeguards preventing Claude from being used for autonomous weapon targeting or mass domestic surveillance. The Pentagon responded by designating the company a supply-chain risk. OpenAI, Google, and xAI have moved into classified defense deployments under less restrictive arrangements. Without treaty law, voluntary safety commitments become bargaining chips under pressure.

        Public Record · United NationsFirst session of the UN Global Dialogue meets in Geneva; its science panel reports days earlier that frontier safety cannot be guaranteed.6–7 July 2026
        Public Record · White HouseExecutive order gives the US government 30-day early access to covered frontier models before release.2 June 2026
        Public RecordPentagon designates Anthropic a “supply-chain risk” over weapons-use safeguards.March 2026
        Public RecordOpenAI and xAI sign expansive defense deployments as the compute race accelerates.February 2026
        Public RecordFrontier AI build-out triggers commitments to multiple new nuclear reactors.2025–2026
        Public Statement · Center for AI SafetyHinton, Bengio, Altman, Hassabis: AI risk on par with pandemics and nuclear war.May 2023

        Paraphrased summaries of public reporting. See linked sources via the contact channel for citations.

        We have built such treaties before.

        The Non-Proliferation Treaty The IAEA The Biological Weapons Convention The Montreal Protocol

        None were utopian when proposed; all function today: imperfect, monitored, real. The technologies they govern are no more dual-use or globally consequential than frontier AI. The institutional infrastructure exists. Only the will is missing.

        The case is not ours alone. The 2023 Center for AI Safety statement, which placed AI risk on the same axis as pandemics and nuclear war, was signed by Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, Sam Altman, and Demis Hassabis. The signatories include the very executives currently building the frontier. Coming from them, the warning is a confession. It has produced no binding constraint on their own behavior, because none has been demanded of them.

        €20 becomes €200, €2,000, or simply unavailable at your tier.

        The pricing model is changing under everyone's feet. Flat subscriptions are giving way to metered inference. If access to intelligence becomes a metered utility, understanding becomes a function of budget. These thresholds are a matter of months. Whoever does not act now will have no leverage later.

        What the Treaty Obligation demandsA mandate from the species

        • A binding international agreement defining the capability and infrastructural thresholds beyond which AI development requires multilateral authorization.
        • Verifiable compute and energy limits at the frontier, monitored under an inspection regime equivalent in seriousness to the IAEA.
        • Pause mechanisms anchored in treaty law rather than corporate self-restraint, triggered by demonstrated capability or demonstrated risk.
        • The inclusion of every frontier-capable state, explicitly including China, whose stated willingness to engage in international AI safety dialogue has been more substantive than the Western reflex acknowledges.
        • Public, citizen-accessible reporting on frontier development, breaking the opacity of corporate self-assessment that currently passes for governance.

        The citizen below. The species above. The corporation answers to neither.

        03 — Who & Why

        Why I built Compute Freedom.

        I am not building Compute Freedom as a personal platform. I am building it because I have seen this pattern before. In science, information can be public while understanding remains concentrated. Data may be shared. Papers may be accessible. Methods may be described. But the real power lies in the infrastructure that turns information into knowledge. The data was open. The understanding was not.

        Artificial intelligence is now reproducing that same structure at civilizational scale. The language of openness remains, but the substance of control is moving into centralized compute, centralized inference, and centralized permission.

        Compute Freedom exists to challenge that arrangement. It argues that control over foundational intelligence must not remain the privilege of a few firms, or the accidental by-product of their business models.

        The initiator
        Michael S. D. Kormann

        A translational scientist and Professor of Translational Genomics and Gene Therapy in Pediatrics, with a PhD in Biology, a former European Research Council Starting Grant, publications in journals including Nature Biotechnology and the Journal of Clinical Investigation, and international recognition including the Maurizio Vignola Award.

        If intelligence becomes infrastructure, its governance cannot remain private.

        04 — Take a Position

        AI governance happens with you or without you.

        Discuss it publicly, challenge it, share it, improve it, wherever policy conversations actually happen. Use the form for collaborations, interviews, policy work, research input, or serious objections that should not be lost in a comment thread.

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        06 — AREPO

        AI will flood the world with images. But it cannot forge your signature.

        Same principle, a different problem: when anyone can generate any image, how do you prove a picture is yours?

        AREPO lets a photographer or an editor vouch for an image. You sign it, anyone can check the signature, and if it holds, it came from you.

        In development. A short film explains it; the tool follows. Get in touch →
        05 — The Forum

        The argument is open. Take it apart.

        Serious objections make the argument better. Post them here, in the open, where they can be read, answered, and kept.

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